UFC 128: Jones vs Shogun Predictions

Live from the Prudential Centre in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday, March 19, 2011. Only on pay-per-view will you get to see the Light Heavyweight Championship on the line between two of the best fighters in the world.

Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua vs Jon 'Bones' Jones

This Main Event fight features two of the best fighters in the 205 lb division. Pride Alum Shogun Rua will take on rising star Jon Jones in what has the potential to be one of the best fights in UFC Championship history.

Shogun Rua is a relatively short light heavyweight, something that will play a major role against the unusually statured Jones. His reach will be approx. 10 inches shorter than the #1 contender.

With early success in Pride, primarily brought on by kicking people in the head, Rua won the middleweight grand prix in 2005 with a victory over Ricardo Arona. Throughout Shogun's career he has faced top talent, holding victories over the likes of Alistair Overeem (x2), Rampage Jackson and Little Nog. Rua has only gone the distance three times and has won 16 fights by knock-out. Though not primarily a grappler, Rua has a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and is a dangerous opponent off his back.

Jones on the other hand is a wrestler who brings interesting but low-percentage strikes to the table. Jones has problems landing strikes and does not have the most impressive head movement.

I don't see any way Jones wins this fight short of a miracle. Rua is the better, more technical and more experienced fighter. He wins, period.

My Pick: Mauricio Rua via TKO


Jim Miller vs Kamal Shalorus

Jim Miller is one of the greatest lightweight fighters in the world, and yet again he finds himself facing mediocre talent. Miller is a terrific wrestler, terrific submission expert and an ever-progressing striker.

Who is Kamal Shalorus? A fighter whose best result came in a draw to Jamie Varner. He is an Iranian grappler. Iranian grappler, Ok.

There is no doubt in my mind that the stars and stripes will pummel the Iranian fighter until a stoppage is called. By way of TKO, submission or good ol' fashioned freedom, Jim Miller will win this fight. But, don't expect to see him in title contention afterwards.

My Pick: Jim Miller via TKO


Dan Miller vs Nate Marquardt

Dan Miller has stepped in to replace Yoshihiro Akiyama against top 10 Middleweight Nate Marquardt.

Both fighters are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts with well-rounded striking skills. The biggest difference might be Dan Miller's wrestling pedigree. In his fight against Chael Sonnen, Marquardt showed an inability to strike against the unusual style and a strong wrestler. What Marquardt HAS been able to display is knock-out power and an ability to stop takedowns against jiu-jitsu style fighters.

With Miller being the less experienced fighter, that nod goes to Marquardt, but as of late, the Greg Jackson fighter hasn't been doing so well. Marquardt is 1-2 in his last three fights with losses coming at the hands of Chael Sonnen and Yushin Okami. Miller on the other hand has won his last two fights, though against fairly weak competition.

This fight may be the best of the night. If it stays standing I would give the advantage to Miller if he can keep it technical, but if it becomes a slugfest, Marquardt will have the advantage. On the ground, Miller will be better if on top, if on the bottom, he won't stand a chance against the powerful Marquardt.

My Pick: Dan Miller via Unanimous Decision. I love Dan Miller.


Mirko 'Cro Cop' Filipovic vs Brendan Schaub

Mirko Cro Cop is a fading relic. He has proven an inability to pull the trigger when necessary and a fading ability to take a punch. He will be facing a rising star in Brendan Schaub, whose only loss has come to Fatty McGee, Roy Nelson.

Schaub has been finishing fights, he has beaten Chris Tuscherer (big whoop), Gabriel Gonzaga (isn't he dead?) and Chase Gormley (is that the dog from Air Bud?). But nonetheless, Schaub is the better fighter. He may just outstrike the Croation kickboxing extraordinaire. But don't count out the Croat.

Look for Mirko to implement a gameplan heavily dependant on counter-striking and leg kicks. His recent friendship with Pat Barry should show him the power of the leg kick. If he can apply that gameplan effectively, he can win this fight.

My Pick: Mirko Cro Cop via Corner Stoppage


UNDERCARD LOCKS!!

Luiz Cane vs Eliot Marshall

My Pick: Luiz Cane via TKO

Ricardo Almeida vs Mike Pyle

My Pick: Ricardo Almeida via Submission

Kurt Pellegrino vs Gleison Tibau

My Pick: Kurt Pellegrino via who the fuck cares it's Kurt Pellegrino

Joseph Benavidez vs Ian Loveland

My Pick: Joseph Benavidez via Submission

That's it for my picks freaks and geeks. Good luck at the fights and Please Drink RESPONSIBLY