UFC 127 Predictions and Results

UFC 127: Penn v Fitch

Here is a breakdown of my picks for the upcoming UFC event, live from Sidney, Australia.

Main Event: BJ 'The Prodigy' Penn vs Jon Fitch

This is an interesting fight to predict, on one hand you have Jon Fitch - a pretty consistent and tough wrestler, willing to take punishment to grind out hard fought decision. On the other hand you have maybe the most inconsistent fighter in the UFC: BJ Penn, who most recently knocked out long-time welterweight Champion Matt Hughes.

For BJ Penn, training and commitment has been the most difficult challenge to overcome, and that is something his opponent (Fitch) doesn't mess around with. BJ Penn is 1-2 in his last three fights with two losses to current Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar. Most oddsmakers have Penn as a slight underdog in this fight against the bigger, stronger wrestler.
BJ Penn (16-7-1) is a world class jiu jitsu ace (6 MMA submission victories and first non-Brazilian to win the black-belt division at the World Jiu Jitsu Championship) and one of the most accurate strikers - landing 51% of attempted strikes. Along with that, Penn is one of the most elusive fighters in the world, avoiding over 60% of attempted strikes. However, it will be his takedown defense that will serve him best in this fight, a skill which at the moment is second to none (stopping 80% of takedown attempts).

Jon Fitch (25-3-0-1) on the other hand is a tough wrestler and one of the top Pound-For-Pound fighters in the world, able to beat anybody in the world that isn't named Georges St. Pierre. One of the best wrestlers in MMA, Fitch has landed 56% of takedowns. This may seem like a low-number, but 48 is the number of successful takedowns he has landed; and that is not a small number. Barring his loss to the current Welterweight Champion, Fitch has gone undefeated since December of 2002. On the ground, Fitch is no slouch successfully passing guard and transitioning to dominant positions 40 times, while Penn is a submission expert and lethal off his back with the Rubber Guard and an arsenal of sweeps.

Don't count on this being fight of the night as Jon Fitch grinds out a 3 round snorefest against the former Prodigy, BJ Penn. With a win at UFC 127, it will be a long but worthwhile wait for St. Pierre to defeat Jake Shields and Anderson Silva before getting another chance at the most dominant welterweight in UFC history.

On a side note: I hope Penn will win this fight, but don't expect him too.

My Pick: Fitch via Decision

Result: Majority Draw

Michael Bisping vs Jorge Rivera

The Count is notorious for being able to take out everyone BUT the top competition, and as much as I like Jorge Rivera, he is not top competition. Bisping is coming off back-to-back wins over Dan Miller and Yoshihiro Akiyama, while Rivera is on a 3 fight win-streak against considerably less impressive competition.

In my opinion, this matchup shows the UFC needing to find a place for these two middleweights, and really running out of options. Bisping is just on another level (not a top level) and I think his ability to stick and move will make all the difference against the hard-hitting Rivera. However, while Bisping will have a considerable advantage as a technical striker, it would only take one right hand for Rivera to end this fight. The Puerto Rican (Rivera) has 13 knockout wins and a powerful finishing flurry.

If Michael Bisping can be elusive and avoid a repeat of his Dan Henderson fight, he will easily win the 3 rounds.

My Pick: Bisping via Decision

Result: Michael Bisping via TKO

George Sotiropoulos vs Denis Siver

Up-and-comer G-Sots faces a dangerous and hard-hitting veteran Denis Siver. This fight will be a huge opportunity for both fighters to propel themselves into title contention.

Sotiropoulos is perhaps the most dominant lightweight in the UFC today having won 9 straight UFC fights, and losing only twice in controversial fashion. G-Sots has proved to not only be a jiu jitsu ace, but have very competent stand-up skills to compliment them. Siver, is more one-dimensional with incredible and flashy stand-up, though not completely incompetent jiu-jitsu.

If the fight goes to the ground, Sotiropoulos will have the definite advantage while Siver should control the stand-uip. If Siver can avoid the takedown I see him landing a flush punch and dropping the Australian native before a ground and pound stoppage. With that being said G-Sots could wrap up a submission while the fight goes from stand-up to the ground.

My Pick: Siver via TKO

Result: Dennis Siver via Unanimous Decision

Chris Lytle vs Brian Ebersole

Chris Lytle is one of the most seasoned veterans in the UFC and known as a tough boxer and well-rounded ground fighter. He has won his last 4 fights, most recently over former champion Matt Serra. As good of a boxer as Lytle is, he has gone .500 in his recent winning streak with submission : unanimous decision victories. He is a boxing specialist who may be more useful on the ground than he is standing up.

Brian Ebersole is not new to the MMA game either with over 60 fights and is also riding a win streak ( 7 fights ) with his highest profile fight coming against former UFC welterweight champion Carlos Newton. Ebersole has fought for many organizations including Strikeforce and the now defunct IFL.

The difference in this fight may be one of fighting commitment. While Chris Lytle is a full-time fighter, Ebersole is primarily a coach, supplementing his income with proffesional competition. This may be the most evenly matched fight on the card. Matching two veteran, well-rounded fighters, neither ever having been knocked-out. Lytle has spent his training camp preparing for Carlos Condit, and Ebersole is taking this fight on short notice.

Though both fighters are extremely-well rounded, I believe that Chris Lytle has fought a higher-calibur of opponent over the years and performed better against them. With a win in this match Chris Lytle will be one-step closer to a title shot, but no closer to winning it against the current Champion. If the UFC makes the right move after GSP moves to middleweight by opening a Welterweight Grand Prix, expect to see Chris Lytle in the running.

My Pick: Chris Lytle via submission (Bonus: Fight of the Night / Submission of the Night)

Result: Brian Ebersole via Unanimous Decision

Undercard LOCKS!

Here you can make a little extra money on some of the non-televised fights.

James Te Huna vs Alexander Gustafsson

My Pick: Alexander Gustafsson via TKO (Bonus: last 3rd of the 1st Round Finish)

Result: Alexander Gustafsson via submission

Mark Hunt vs Chris Tuchscherer

My Pick: Chris Tuchscherer via TKO

Result: Mark Hunt via KO

Tiequan Zhang vs Jason Reinhardt

My Pick: Tiequan Zhang via submission

Result: Tiequan Zhang via submission

Those are the picks my people, as I'm sure you can see I haven't done the whole fight card. I only make picks on the fights you are GOING to make money on. If I can't call it, I ain't going to lie to you. Enjoy the Fights! Drink Responsibly.